Joe Biden’s reelection prospects for the 2024 U.S. presidential election have seen a sharp decline on the prediction platform Polymarket, where his odds fell to 9% before slightly increasing to 10%. This has led to speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris potentially replacing him as the Democratic candidate. The uncertainty around Biden’s campaign is growing, reflecting broader concerns about his ability to secure a second term.
On Polymarket, former President Donald Trump is the leading candidate with a 61% chance of victory, while Harris is the second most likely candidate at 19%. PredictIt, another prediction market, shows a similar trend with Biden’s share prices dropping, indicating diminishing confidence among traders. Harris has become the leading Democratic candidate on this platform, though Trump still holds the highest value in “Yes” shares.
Concerns about Biden’s fitness for office have contributed to his declining reelection odds. Media reports and commentators have questioned his health and cognitive abilities, with recent gaffes intensifying these worries.
Biden and Harris
For example, Biden joked about his mental state during a White House meeting and later mistakenly claimed he was the “first black woman” U.S. President in a radio interview, both incidents fueling doubts about his candidacy.
Despite these challenges, Biden remains adamant about staying in the race. He reaffirmed his intention to continue his campaign during an Independence Day speech, insisting he is not dropping out. However, Polymarket now suggests a 66% chance that Biden will exit the race before the election, with many seeing Harris as the most likely replacement to challenge Trump.
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be highly unpredictable, with digital asset regulation becoming a significant issue. Both Trump and some Democratic participants have expressed support for blockchain and crypto assets, highlighting the growing importance of digital currencies in the political landscape.
Additionally, Carole House’s return to the White House after drafting Biden’s executive order on digital currencies has drawn considerable attention, adding another layer of intrigue to the upcoming election.
