President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race significantly altered the political landscape, leading to unexpected shifts in candidate dynamics. The rapid changes have been notably impactful, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the central figures in the evolving race.
Trump’s performance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, which appealed to the crypto community, was initially promising. However, Kamala Harris has managed to surpass him in fundraising as of July, buoyed by strong support from the Democratic Party. This financial edge has helped Harris gain momentum in polls and on prediction markets such as Polymarket.
Kamala Harris
Since Biden’s exit from the race, Harris’ chances have surged from 30% to 49%, while Trump’s odds have declined from 72% to the same 49%. Harris’s increased odds can be attributed to both the boost from her campaign and the recent assassination attempt on Trump, which has negatively impacted his campaign. Additionally, Harris’s recent choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has further strengthened her position.
Despite Trump’s enduring popularity and his strong debate performances against Biden, his chances have diminished as Harris gains traction. The shift in odds reflects the changing dynamics of the race, with Polymarket showing a large volume of bets—over $541 million—on the presidential outcome, indicating high engagement and rapid response to news events.
The evolving nature of the race has also affected Trump-related meme coins. Both TrumpCoin $DJT and $MAGA have experienced significant drops, with $DJT falling by 95% and $MAGA dropping over 60% in the past month. This decline mirrors the changing odds and highlights the real-time nature of prediction markets in capturing the fluctuations in the political landscape.
