As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the race has intensified, with Vice President Kamala Harris taking the lead over former President Donald Trump in betting markets. Data from Polymarket shows Harris with a 54% chance of winning, while Trump’s odds have dropped to 44%.
This shift reflects growing skepticism among bettors, particularly due to Trump’s perceived lack of engagement on key issues like crypto assets—a topic that has gained traction within the Democratic Party.
Despite Trump’s dip in confidence, he still commands the largest volume of predictions, with $75.6 million wagered on his chances of returning to the White House. Although his odds have decreased, the significant backing from bettors indicates he remains a viable contender.
Meanwhile, Harris’s fortunes have been bolstered by the Democratic Party’s increasing support for cryptocurrency, which has become a central topic in her campaign.
Donald Trump
Harris’s rise in betting markets can be traced to events like Crypto4Harris, where key Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for clear regulations on virtual currencies. Schumer’s bipartisan appeal resonated with Polymarket users, contributing to Harris’s surge in popularity. Her odds have jumped from 38¢ to 54¢ per share, signaling growing confidence in her candidacy among bettors.
One prominent bettor, known as “Serus,” invested heavily in Harris’s campaign, purchasing 2.4 million shares at 38¢ per share. With Harris’s market price now at 54¢, this has resulted in a significant unrealized profit of $374,000 for Serus. The total volume of bets on Harris has reached $66.9 million, further solidifying her position as a strong contender in the race.
Adding to Harris’s momentum, J.P. Theriot, co-founder of the crypto platform Uphold, recently endorsed her. Theriot expressed disappointment with Trump’s failure to deliver on his promises for the crypto industry and believes Harris, as a younger candidate more in tune with emerging technologies, offers a better future.
However, this endorsement has sparked debate, with some, like Attorney Bill Morgan, questioning whether Theriot’s public support for a political figure could alienate certain crypto enthusiasts.
