James Check, the lead analyst at Glassnode, predicts that the anticipated altcoin season will not unfold as many expect, blaming the overenthusiasm of new crypto traders for this delay. He believes that these traders are entering the market too quickly, buying into speculative assets prematurely, and disrupting the natural flow of market cycles.
Check likens this behavior to spoiling a joke by revealing the punchline too early, which diminishes the impact of what could have been a more significant market movement.
During his appearance on the Rough Consensus podcast with Joe Carlasare, Check analyzed how trader behavior has evolved between 2021 and 2024. In the current market cycle, traders have rushed to buy popular memecoins in an attempt to outsmart the market.
This is a departure from historical trends, where memecoins typically rallied toward the end of a bull run. The early rally of these coins in 2024 suggests a shift in how market cycles are playing out, largely driven by new traders eager to capitalize on quick gains.
James Check Warns Altcoin Season Delayed by New Traders’ Haste, Citing Market Cycle Disruptions
Check pointed out that the market in 2021 followed a more predictable pattern, beginning with a surge in Bitcoin, which then spread to Ethereum, Layer 1 projects, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
In contrast, the current market narrative seems to prioritize maximizing profits by investing in highly speculative coins, which Check refers to as the “most stupid coins.” This shift was partly triggered by the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which sparked a market rally and led traders to focus on memecoins instead of more traditional altcoins.
A prime example of this trend is the rapid rise of PEPE, a memecoin that saw massive gains in the first half of 2024. For example, one trader managed to turn a $3,000 investment into a $46 million profit by capitalizing on PEPE’s meteoric rise. However, this focus on memecoins has left traditional altcoins neglected during the accumulation phase, creating a gap in the market. This has led to concerns that altcoins might miss out on the benefits of the broader market rally that memecoins have enjoyed.
Despite these challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about the future of altcoins. Analyst Luke Martin believes that altcoins are currently in a significant accumulation phase, reminiscent of Bitcoin’s price surge in 2020.
Similarly, trader Mags sees a bullish pattern forming in the altcoin market, specifically a falling wedge pattern that typically signals a strong rally. Although the altcoin market has seen a 47% decline from previous highs, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe still see significant potential for growth, suggesting that the current market conditions might be a precursor to a strong altcoin recovery.
