On Wednesday morning, Donald Trump became the presumptive winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, signaling potential shifts in federal AI policy once he assumes office. One of his first actions could be to dismantle President Biden’s AI Executive Order, issued in October 2023, which introduced comprehensive oversight of AI development.
The order established the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) and set requirements for companies to report AI training methods and security measures, aiming to address vulnerabilities in AI systems. Additionally, it tasked the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with providing guidance to identify and fix flaws in AI models.
Trump’s supporters, including Republican lawmakers, have criticized Biden’s AI regulations. For instance, Representative Nancy Mace and Senator Ted Cruz argued that the reporting requirements could stifle innovation, with Cruz suggesting that NIST’s AI safety standards might infringe on free speech. This opposition raises questions about the future of the AI regulatory framework established under Biden, including the fate of the AISI, which may be repealed if Trump follows through on his plan to dismantle the executive order.
Trump’s Win Signals Shift in AI Policy: Biden’s Oversight Order Likely on the Chopping Block
Trump’s proposed trade policies could also have a significant impact on the AI industry. His suggested tariffs on U.S. imports, including a 60 percent tariff on Chinese products, could disrupt the supply of essential components like GPUs, which are vital for AI training and inference. Additionally, Trump might enforce stricter export controls on AI technologies, particularly in China, though some Chinese companies still access AI tools via cloud services. These measures could lead to a more isolated or fragmented global AI market.
Despite limited discussion of AI during his campaign, Trump’s broader policies could influence the industry. His proposed restrictions on H-1B visas and plans to expand domestic oil and gas production could complicate AI companies’ ability to recruit global talent and access computing resources.
Furthermore, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Trump ally, has indicated that Republicans might seek to repeal or overhaul the CHIPS and Science Act, a key Biden initiative aimed at boosting U.S. semiconductor production. These developments suggest that Trump’s administration may prioritize deregulation and more nationalistic policies, which could further shape the future of AI.
If Trump removes federal oversight, state governments might step in to regulate AI at a local level. Several states, including Tennessee, Colorado, and California, have already passed laws addressing AI safety and ethical concerns, such as AI voice cloning and deepfake protection. Trump’s approach to AI regulation remains uncertain, as his campaign statements emphasize promoting AI development with a focus on “free speech and human flourishing,” but without specific policies.
His allies at the America First Policy Institute have proposed a speculative draft for an executive order to reduce AI regulations and focus on advancing military AI capabilities, reflecting his administration’s potential prioritization of AI in defense. However, as AI technology rapidly evolves, the regulatory environment may continue to shift in unpredictable ways.
