Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China and founder of 01.AI and Sinovation Ventures, predicts that AI applications in China will soon outpace those in the US in terms of adoption and usage. While some Chinese AI models lag behind US counterparts by 15 months, top-tier large language models (LLMs) are only six to nine months behind. Lee anticipates a rapid acceleration in AI adoption across China, driven by advances in technology, infrastructure, and decreasing costs for AI model training.
China’s AI sector benefits from several key advantages. One of the most significant factors is the decreasing cost of developing AI models, particularly LLMs. This has enabled Chinese companies to scale their efforts more efficiently. In addition, China’s tech ecosystem, vast data resources, manufacturing capabilities, and government support provide a fertile ground for AI-powered innovations to grow. These factors could allow China to quickly bridge the AI gap with the US and surpass it in the near future.
Kai-Fu Lee Predicts China Will Surpass US in AI Adoption as Costs Decrease and Innovation Accelerates
The US currently leads in AI development, particularly in software and cloud computing. However, Lee sees China’s strength in its ability to commercialize AI technologies faster and integrate them into daily life. With the infrastructure and expertise now in place, Lee predicts that by early next year, China will see a significant increase in the number of AI applications compared to the US, where regulatory and infrastructural challenges could slow the pace of AI deployment.
Lee also points to uncertainties about which companies will spearhead this AI-driven revolution. It’s unclear if the breakthrough AI applications will come from smaller, nimble startups or larger tech giants. In China, major companies like Alibaba and Tencent have invested heavily in AI, with Tencent launching its large language model “Hunyuan,” which is now integrated into its ecosystem for various applications, including cloud computing and gaming.
Looking ahead, Lee envisions AI’s impact on consumer technology evolving over the next five to eight years, potentially leading to the development of a “super app” that integrates various AI functions into one platform. AI-powered wearables, like the “Friend” necklace, represent early steps toward a future where AI is constantly present and responsive. Both China and the US are pushing toward this future, but China’s infrastructure and drive for innovation may give it the edge in AI adoption.
